After Friday’s pullback and today’s bounce, I’ve been getting the same question over and over…
“Jack — are we still bullish here?”
And my answer?
Yes.
I’m still bullish… until the market proves otherwise.
Market Looks Wobbly — But It’s Not Broken
Let’s look at the big picture.
On Friday, we dipped below the 20-day moving average on the major indexes.
Today, we bounced just barely back above it.
Here’s the chart:
After the market has been pretty much straight up for the past few months, this might have a lot of traders on the edge of their seat.
But it’s not a reason to panic.
Because here’s how I look at it:
→ The longer-term trend is still intact
→ The 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (what I call my Trend Points) are all still rising
→ And most importantly, those trends are acting as support — not resistance
That last part is key.
How I Use Trends as My Line in the Sand
If you’ve been following me for a while, you’ll know this.
When I’m evaluating the market, I don’t guess or make gut calls.
I check SPY, QQQ, and DIA. I pull up my TrendPoint chart and look at the 20-, 50-, and 200-day EMAs.
If price is bouncing off those lines, that tells me the trend is being respected.
But if price starts to break down below those lines — and they start acting as resistance instead of support?
That’s when the trend is flipping. That’s when I reassess.
And we’re not there yet.
What Would Make Me Flip Bearish
It’s simple:
→ If the market starts failing at the 20- or 50-day average…
→ If those EMAs start sloping down…
→ And if price starts getting rejected once those Trend Points are over head…
Then I’ll flip.
But not a moment before that.
Until Then… I’m Staying the Course
Look, I’m not here to guess tops or bottoms. I’m here to stack the odds and trade what’s working.
And right now? The trend is still up.
So I’ll keep trading bullish setups.
I’ll keep selling puts and running spreads on strong stocks.
And I’ll stay bullish — until the market stops rewarding that behavior.
That’s how you stay alive in this business.
Trade Well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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