Why I’m Still Bullish — And What Would Change My Mind

Jack Carter | August 4, 2025

After Friday’s pullback and today’s bounce, I’ve been getting the same question over and over…

“Jack — are we still bullish here?”

And my answer?

Yes.

I’m still bullish… until the market proves otherwise.

Market Looks Wobbly — But It’s Not Broken

Let’s look at the big picture.

On Friday, we dipped below the 20-day moving average on the major indexes.
Today, we bounced just barely back above it.

Here’s the chart:

After the market has been pretty much straight up for the past few months, this might have a lot of traders on the edge of their seat.

But it’s not a reason to panic.

Because here’s how I look at it:

→ The longer-term trend is still intact
→ The 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (what I call my Trend Points) are all still rising
→ And most importantly, those trends are acting as support — not resistance

That last part is key.

How I Use Trends as My Line in the Sand

If you’ve been following me for a while, you’ll know this.

When I’m evaluating the market, I don’t guess or make gut calls.

I check SPY, QQQ, and DIA. I pull up my TrendPoint chart and look at the 20-, 50-, and 200-day EMAs.

If price is bouncing off those lines, that tells me the trend is being respected.

But if price starts to break down below those lines — and they start acting as resistance instead of support?

That’s when the trend is flipping. That’s when I reassess.

And we’re not there yet.

What Would Make Me Flip Bearish

It’s simple:

→ If the market starts failing at the 20- or 50-day average…
→ If those EMAs start sloping down…
→ And if price starts getting rejected once those Trend Points are over head…

Then I’ll flip.

But not a moment before that.

Until Then… I’m Staying the Course

Look, I’m not here to guess tops or bottoms. I’m here to stack the odds and trade what’s working.

And right now? The trend is still up.

So I’ll keep trading bullish setups.
I’ll keep selling puts and running spreads on strong stocks.
And I’ll stay bullish — until the market stops rewarding that behavior.

That’s how you stay alive in this business.

Trade Well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading

P.S. Have you seen the platform that automates my entire trading strategy down to a click?

Trending Stocks of the Week — August 4, 2025

Jack Carter | August 4, 2025

One stock is primed to pop this week.
See the stock!

To help you discover the power of trends, every week I share with you a handful of the top trending stocks.

These stocks are picked by my purpose-built, custom-made TrendPoint software to pick the strongest trending stocks in the market right now.

If you know anything about me, you know that every trade I get into starts with a trending stock.

Unless a stock is in a strong trend, I don’t want to hear about it. In my book, wishy washy stocks are the quickest way to losing money.

This Week’s Stocks

Markets stumbled a bit on Friday, dipping below their 20 day trendline.

Today, they’re back up above, but just barely.

Time to watch and see what’s going to happen.

Remember, markets have been strongly bullish.

We don’t flip to bearish just because of a quick drop below the 20 day.

That said, here are three bullish stocks that barely registered Friday’s market drop:

  • AHR
  • CBOE (on last week’s list, too)
  • ULTA

And don’t forget about last week’s list, which you can find here.

What can you do with these stocks?

Well, there are a couple of things you could consider — after doing your own research, of course:

  1. Buy or short — For bullish stocks, this is probably the simplest thing you could do. Then just wait for it to go up and sell when you hit a profit target you’re comfortable with. This is only for upward-trending stocks we’re long on.

    For downward-trending stocks (those that we’re bearish on), you can short them. This is a little more advanced, so if you’re just getting started, I wouldn’t recommend this play. Remember, just like buying a stock, shorting comes with unlimited risk if the stock moves against you, so always have a clear stop-loss in place.
  2. You could buy an option.

    For bullish stocks, this means buying a call option.
    For bearish stocks, this means buying a put option.

    You know I’m not a fan of speculative plays, but every once in a while it doesn’t hurt to throw a little cash at a speculative option. Just remember, while options can move bigtime if the stock goes up… the downside of options is that you have a time limit on how quickly you need the stock to make that move.

    So think about your risk tolerance when you consider buying calls on bullish stocks or buying puts on bearish stocks.
  3. You could collect instant income.

    If you’ve been following me for any length of time, you know that I’m a big fan of income plays, because they massively increase your odds of winning. We do this by SELLING options instead of buying them.

    Not only do income plays let you get paid instantly — as soon as you place the trade. You massively increase your odds of winning, because the way we trade them, you don’t have to be 100% right about the direction of the stock.

    If you haven’t tried your hand at income trading yet, I urge you to try this exercise for yourself. Without risking any money, it will really let you see the power of income trading and why it’s my favorite method.

    Income plays on bullish stocks can be naked puts, covered calls or a bull put spread.

    Income plays on bearish stocks will be a little more complicated. But if you’re a more advanced trader, you can look into doing a short term bear call spread, which involves selling an out-of-the-money call and buying a call one strike price higher.

That’s all for now.

Stay tuned, because I’ll be sending you a new list of TrendPoint Best Trending Stocks every week! (usually Mondays)

Trade well,

Jack Carter