You know what gets me?
When people look at one of my trades and say, “Why would you pick up 20 bucks and risk five grand?”
I get it. From the outside it looks crazy. But they’re only looking at risk versus reward.
The third dimension is probability — and probability changes everything.
Standing on the Highway vs. Standing in the Parking Lot
Most traders want to sell options close to the money because the premium is fatter. Makes sense, right?
Except closer to the money, you’re liable to get hit by a truck. You’re moving fast on the highway and you’re right on the edge of the road.
One quick move and you’re done.
But when I sell puts deep out-of-the-money (OTM), I’m standing in the parking lot instead of the shoulder. It’s calmer out there. More room to breathe. More room to survive.
Sure, I’m picking up $20 instead of $200. But the chance of a stock crashing through a strike that’s way OTM is slim. And once you understand that, the whole equation flips.
Most traders never even run the probability calculation. They just react to the risk-reward ratio and move on. But when you actually look at the likelihood of each outcome, the so-called small wins start looking like smart wins.
Why the Same Trade Keeps Working
Here’s what I love about high-probability setups: I can go back to the well over and over. With a credit spread on a stock like Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), I can revisit the same trade every week until the trend breaks.
I’m not looking for the next moonshot. I’ve spent decades chasing the fastest moving stocks on the planet and that game is hard. What’s easy is selling a cash-secured put deep OTM, doing it again next week, then again the week after that.
And when you stack those high-probability trades week after week, the math works in your favor. You don’t need fireworks. You need consistency.
The traders who struggle are the ones who only look at the surface numbers. The traders who win are the ones who understand the quiet power of probability and repetition.
That’s the whole secret: Stand where you won’t get hit, take the easy wins, repeat until the trend changes.
It’s not flashy but it works.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
Ps. A New ‘Income Glitch’ Opportunity is Flashing As We Speak…
This market anomaly occurs on some of the biggest stocks in the market.
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