I got a bunch of questions this week about IPO trading — what to do when something hot comes public, when to sell, how to play the first-day pop and so on.
And honestly? My answer might surprise you.
I don’t really play the IPO game anymore.
Not because I can’t. But because there’s no reason to be in the IPO business these days — they’re just not that hot.
But let me tell you how it used to work. Because understanding the old playbook tells you everything you need to know about why the game changed — and what still matters when a deal does pop.
How We Gamed the System in the ’90s
Back in the ’90s, pops were almost expected. The whole era ran on a different kind of energy. Traders lived for opening ticks because most of the real money showed up right out of the gate. And at the center of it all was something called the IPO matrix — the internal scoreboard brokers used to decide who got allocations.
If you wanted shares of the hot deals, you played the matrix. That meant running as much business as possible through the broker with the next big IPO. It didn’t matter if the trades themselves were cosmetic.
Buying and selling Microsoft at the same time — making or losing a couple cents — was worth it because the commissions nudged you higher on that list.
And when the IPO opened? You sold immediately. That was the whole game.
Pixar was one of the legendary ones. It came public around $16 and opened somewhere near $68. A move like that could define your whole quarter. We hit every share on that opening tick because that’s what you did with a true heater — you took the gift.
But the brokers hated early selling. They wanted you locked in for 90 days. If they caught you dumping on the open, you were in the doghouse — no more allocations.
So you had to get creative.
Some traders would have their prime broker short it for them and carry it off the books just to lock in the gain without technically selling. Eventually that caught up to us too, and the whole system tightened up fast.
What Still Matters Today
The modern IPO market is different. The pops are smaller, the scrutiny is higher, and if you sell early, you’re sidelined for 60 days. There’s no more gaming the matrix, no more shadow maneuvering, no more wild west openings.
Take Medline (MDLN). It came out at $29 and ran to about $40 — a respectable move, but nothing close to what the old days served up. And that’s the point.
Today’s IPOs are cleaner, more contained, and structured to keep volatility from getting out of hand.
The biggest pop you’ll ever see is still the spread between the IPO price and the opening print. That’s where hedge funds make their money — unloading into that opening rush. And once they’re done, you find out whether real buyers exist or whether the whole thing was held up by allocations waiting to sell.
Recent deals like Circle (CRCL) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY) told the same story. Big opens, fast fades. The open gives you the truth — not the marketing, not the roadshow, not the hype.
Just supply and demand meeting for the first time.
So if you’re wondering whether to chase an IPO on day one, understand who’s holding the shares and what their incentives are. If the early owners are looking to sell into that first hour, that “pop” can vanish in minutes.
And that’s why I prefer to wait. Let the chaos happen. Let the forced selling clear. Then trade the setup that emerges once the dust settles.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Did You Catch the Upside-Down Options Summit?
Graham and I just wrapped up the Upside-Down Options Summit.
If you’re not sure what that is, it’s where I unveiled an all-new type of options trade that’s shown the power to pay out $500 per day on a $2.5K starting stake.
This isn’t your typical options strategy…
We don’t bother with what the market is doing or even where it’s heading.
Our concern is leveraging what’s arguably its most consistent daily phenomenon.
And as long as it shows up, we can trade.
During the beta phase, we recorded 16 straight unbeaten trades thanks to this new discovery, and there’s now room for you to get in on the action.
Granted, there are no guarantees when it comes to trading…
But if you’d like to see how this entire setup works, and even how you can get in on the next opportunity…
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. The performances displayed here were identified in both real time and with 20/20 hindsight. From 5/2022 through 12/2025 the back tested win rate was 86.4% on 631 total setups with a 14.2% average daily return of winners and losers and a 28.4% average win. From 11/12/25 to 12/11/25 the real time trading win rate was 93.3% with an average return on options trades of 15% over a one day hold time with a 24% average win.
