Hey Traders,
As I’ve been saying lately… this market is shifting.
We’re not out of the woods just yet — but the bearish stretch we saw starting in early March through the last week or two is starting to give way.
You can feel it. And if you look at a chart the way I do, you can see it.
Just pull up the charts for the SPY, DIA, and QQQ — all three of the major indexes.
Each one is currently trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
That’s a big deal.
Why That Matters
Those three lines — the green short-term (20-day), the blue medium-term (50-day), and red long-term (200-day) — are like the guide rails I always talk about.
And when price climbs above (or below) all three, it tells you one thing loud and clear:
Momentum is shifting.
Now, we’re not in full-blown bullish alignment yet.
For that to happen, we need those trendlines to stack in the right order:
- Short-term (green) on top
- Medium-term (blue) in the middle
- Long-term (red) on bottom
But every day we stay above those lines?
The stack keeps shifting.
And if that continues… we’re going to see a full bullish alignment sooner than later.
Go With The Tide
So I figured now’s a good time to remind you of a principle I probably don’t say enough:
Start every trade by checking the trend of the broad market.
I’ve talked plenty about trading with cushion — finding a stock that’s trending, then placing a trade that gives you some room to be wrong.
But before you even do that?
You’ve got to ask: Am I trading in the same direction as the overall market?
Because in my experience, this one filter can change your win rate dramatically.
Let me explain.
Don’t Try To Beat the Ocean
If the broad market is trending down… and you place a bullish trade?
You’re swimming against the tide.
Does that mean you’re guaranteed to lose? No.
But it does mean you’re making things harder than they need to be.
It’s like throwing a raft into the ocean when the tide is pulling left.
Where’s that raft gonna go?
Left, of course!
Sure, you can paddle against it — but it takes a whole lot more energy and skill. And frankly, most stocks don’t have that kind of strength.
So that’s why I always follow these rules of thumb:
- When the market is bearish, you want to trade bearish setups.
- When the market is bullish, you want to trade bullish setups.
That way, even if your trade’s not perfect, the tide can still carry you.
What This Means Right Now
Like I said — we’re not fully flipped bullish yet.
But things are getting there. And fast.
So if you’ve been sitting on your hands, waiting for confirmation… or if you’ve been trying to fade this rally because it “shouldn’t be happening”…
Just take a breath.
Look at the chart.
Check the trendlines.
And ask yourself if the trade you’re thinking about fits the market we’re in.
That one question — market fit — can keep you on the right side of the tape far more often than not.
In this game, odds are everything.
And your first edge… is making sure the tide is at your back.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. Here’s another great example of having the tide at your back: trading with Wall Street’s “Big Money”
