Hey traders,
For months I’’’ve heard the same drumbeat: “Big drop coming. Any day now.”
Meanwhile… the market keeps walking higher, pulling back, then grinding again.
And last week the Fed cut rates — which, nine times out of ten, is taken as bullish.
Cue another round of headlines, commentary, and scary thumbnails.
Here’s my take: ignore the headlines, ignore the worries — trade what’s in front of you.
I’m not saying risks don’t exist. They always do. I’ve been doing this long enough to know there’s always a reason to be scared. But if you let “what-ifs” run your book, you’ll talk yourself out of a lot of good trades.
What’s “in front of you” right now?
- A market that’s been rewarding strength and punishing obvious weakness.
- Premiums that are still juicy enough on the right tickers to make selling options a rational choice.
- Plenty of liquid names where you can get in, get paid, and get out without trying to forecast Powell, CPI, or the next headline spin.
That’s why I keep my process simple:
Step one: read the trend, not the tweets. If price is holding higher lows and buyers show up on dips, I treat it as bullish until the chart says otherwise.
Step two: pick tools that don’t require a perfect forecast. For me that’s premium-selling — covered calls on stocks I own, naked puts on names I want to own, and short-dated credit spreads when I want defined risk. If we chop, I get paid. If we drift, I get paid. If we pop without blowing through my short, I still get paid. No heroics required.
Step three: size so you can breathe. The moment your position size forces you to obsess over every tick, you’re no longer trading the trend — you’re trading your fear.
Could we finally get a deeper pullback next week? Sure. Could the cut spark a melt-up instead? Also yes. That’s the point: we don’t have to guess. We just have to respond.
So if you’ve been sitting on your hands for six weeks waiting for “the big one,” do yourself a favor — stop trading the narrative and start trading the chart.
The market is paying people who do the boring work: identify strength, sell sensible premium, manage risk, repeat.
Trade what’s in front of you. Let everyone else argue about the headlines. You and I will keep getting paid.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
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