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I don’t usually wade into the business of calling out entire industries. But when someone as respected as the CEO of Honda (HMC) steps up and signals serious challenges for the company’s future in autos, it’s worth paying attention.
And if Honda is struggling to make it work — a company that builds everything from small personal jets to outboard motors — it raises a bigger question about legacy automakers like Ford (F).
The China Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About
The core issue here is China — specifically BYD (BYDDY). Their strategy is built around heavy government support, allowing them to operate under a very different set of constraints than traditional automakers.
We’re talking about a model where pricing, scale and long-term market share can take priority over near-term profitability.
This isn’t typical competition. It’s a long-term strategy designed to pressure companies still relying on traditional margins, supply chains and business models.
Meanwhile, legacy automakers are working to close the gap on modern engineering. When executives at Ford acknowledge they’re studying vehicles from Tesla (TSLA) and discovering areas where they’re behind, it highlights how quickly the technology curve is moving.
Why I See Ford as a Dinosaur
This brings us to the real question: Does Ford fully fit into the world that’s coming?
A world defined by autonomous systems, AI-driven development, rapidly evolving EV manufacturing and global competitors operating under different economic frameworks.
Traditional automakers aren’t just competing against new technology — they’re adapting to an entirely different competitive landscape.
They need to rethink manufacturing, margins and identity. That’s a difficult shift, especially at scale.
And that’s why I see Ford as a potential laggard here. Not because they don’t build strong products or have brand loyalty, but because the pace of industry change is accelerating faster than legacy transformation cycles.
You can’t ignore competitors that are moving faster, investing aggressively and prioritizing long-term dominance.
What That Means for My Trading
Now, I’m not saying short F tomorrow.
You know my rule: If the major indices are above key moving averages, I’m not shorting anything.
But I am saying this: Think carefully before committing long-term capital to companies facing structural headwinds like this.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.
And for me, F falls into that category right now.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 1/1/21 through 4/2/26, the average return per options trade alert published in real time (winners and losers) is 3.37% in 3 days, with a 96.2% win rate.
