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Look, I’m about to tell you something I don’t say very often. I took a loss.
Not just any loss, a credit spread on Broadcom (AVGO) that settled in the absolute worst spot possible: Right between my strikes.
I sold the $312.50/$315 credit spread, and when the dust settled Thursday, AVGO landed right in the airport, smack between those two strikes. That’s the nightmare scenario for credit spreads because you don’t have a clean win or a clean exit.
I waited until the end of Thursday like I planned. I really needed AVGO to move above $315 to make unwinding worth it, cover the short call and stay long the $315, but in the last 15 minutes I could tell it wasn’t happening.
So I took the loss.
It was unusual enough that it stood out, but that’s exactly why I didn’t regret it for a second. When you know your process works, the occasional hit doesn’t shake anything. You take it, move on and stay confident in the strategy that wins over time.
Why Waiting Until Friday Almost Always Wins
My approach to credit spreads is simple: The first move is no move.
That’s straight from The Art of War, and it applies perfectly here. I never fix anything early in the week because even when things look ugly, you still have time value working for you.
So I wait until Friday at the end of the day, and most of the time I do nothing. That’s usually the best outcome.
But sometimes the market reminds you it has its own schedule. On Wednesday, we dipped pretty hard, and I thought we’d get continuation into Thursday. Instead, it rallied right back. Moves like that don’t break your strategy, but they keep you humble.
The market doesn’t care what you expect, it does what it does. I kept thinking no one would want to bid things up going into a three-day weekend with war concerns. I expected weakness, but instead it pinned itself right in the one spot I didn’t want.
That’s where risk management matters. If you’re ever worried about a position, you traded too big. Size solves almost every emotional problem in trading. When your size is right, you’re free to do nothing, and doing nothing is often the best move.
What I’m Doing With AVGO Now
Even after the loss, I’m still long AVGO. I didn’t bail on the name, I just moved on from that one trade.
I sold $350 calls against my position, and I’ll likely sell additional naked puts going forward. The setup is still solid. My timing on that spread was simply off, and timing is always the hardest part of this game.
You can read structure perfectly, understand the levels and still watch the market take a path you didn’t expect. That’s why discipline beats prediction.
You can’t rely on getting timing right every day, but you can rely on following your process every day. You take the rare loss, log it mentally, stay confident and keep trading.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On live trades, the result is a 78% win rate from 4/05/23 through 2/20/26, with an average return per trade (winners and losers included) of 19.88%, a 6-day average hold time, and an average winner of 52.76%.
