Hey Traders,
A lot of folks ask me, “Jack, what do you think of the market right now?”
I could tell you… but I’d rather show you.
The Broad Market Picture
Here’s the S&P 500 (SPY).
Every time it’ ‘s pulled back since the crossover back in May, it’s been finding support right at that green short-term trend line. That’s bullish behavior.
Ever since we got that crossover to the upside — where the shorter-term averages moved above the longer ones — the trend has been clear: higher.
Even with this little pullback we’re seeing now, I haven’t sold a thing.
My dividend names? I’m still holding. My income trades? Still on.
Because the big picture is still pointing up.
But Here’s the Catch: Seasonality
Now, I’ll be straight with you.
We are heading into late August and early September.
Historically, this hasn’t been the friendliest stretch for markets. Add in Fed chatter, earnings, and every headline the media can pump out, and you get a jittery tape.
That’s why you’ve got to pay attention to what’s under the surface.
Only a Few Names Move the Market
Here’s the wild part: out of 500 stocks in the S&P, only about four have been carrying most of the load on this rally.
Nvidia (NVDA). Microsoft (MSFT). Meta (META). Broadcom (AVGO).
Those four have been the heavy lifters.
But here’s the problem:
- Nvidia just slipped below short-term support.
- Microsoft’s pressing down toward its intermediate trend line.
- Meta’s already under its short-term line.
- Broadcom’s sitting right on top of its intermediate support.
In other words — the generals that dragged the market higher are starting to look weaker than the index itself.
What That Means for Traders
On the surface, SPY looks fine. Trend still points up. Odds are better sticking with bullish setups than trying to short.
But under the hood? The story’s shifting.
If the leaders can’t get back in gear, this market won’t keep running the way it has.
That’s not me fearmongering… That’s just what the charts are showing.
The Opportunity
Here’s the silver lining: volatility like this pumps up options prices.
That means if you’ve got a strategy that builds in cushion — something that pays you upfront while the market chops around — this is your kind of environment.
That’s where I’ll be focusing.
Because whether the next move is up, down, or sideways… the key is knowing what’s really happening beneath the surface, not just staring at the headline index.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. Right now the market’s still technically bullish and I’m looking at trading these stocks that have a 10 year history of popping in August.
