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Sometimes the market gives you a gift — a clear, loud signal telling you to stay away.
This past week, Joby Aviation (JOBY) handed us exactly that.
The company announced a $1 billion offering, part debt and part equity, and the stock immediately dropped about 18% on the news.
That’s not a hiccup. That’s the market screaming.
JOBY is raising the money for two reasons. First, to address an ongoing lawsuit with Archer Aviation (ACHR). Second, its cash burn rate has been so high that it needs capital just to remain operational.
When a company with roughly a $9 billion market cap dilutes shareholders by about 10% simply to keep the lights on, the message is clear.
The Offering Nobody Wanted
The equity portion of the raise was priced at $11.50 per share, and the market immediately rejected it.
The stock sold off right at that level, signaling it cannot absorb supply there. The offering could be repriced, but that only adds another layer of uncertainty to an already messy situation.
Flying taxis sound exciting, but the concept doesn’t fit neatly into today’s aviation framework. Quad-rotor aircraft and flying cars would require a wholesale reworking of how airspace is governed.
That kind of regulatory overhaul would demand massive effort and sustained bipartisan cooperation — something rarely delivered.
While JOBY battles a cash crunch and a legal fight, it’s also facing a regulatory mountain that isn’t getting climbed anytime soon.
Why I’m Staying Clear
I’ve heard everything from “crazy bad news” to “I wouldn’t touch that thing” from people who follow this space closely.
That isn’t contrarian pessimism. That’s seasoned market skepticism.
I’m not here to predict what JOBY might be worth in five years. This isn’t a long-term investment discussion.
What matters is the setup right now — and right now, it’s ugly.
Between the lawsuit, the capital strain and an aviation system not built for this model, the risk profile is skewed sharply to the downside.
Compare that with ACHR, where BlackRock has the ability to extend credit support — a meaningful advantage when cash is king.
When a company announces a massive, dilutive raise and the stock immediately collapses, the market is giving you permission to walk away.
I’m taking it.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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