Hey Traders,
Look at the headlines and you’d think this market is resilient.
“Stocks rally on stronger jobs data”…
“Investors shake off Fed jitters”…
“Markets hold steady despite uncertainty”…
Every day it’s something new. The financial media needs a reason — a story — to explain every move the market makes.
But if you’ve been following me for even a few weeks, you know better.
This market isn’t moving because of the headlines.
It’s moving — or in this case stuck — because of the trendlines.
Just this week, the SPY got above the 50-day moving average — and what happened?
It stalled out. Just like we talked about. Just like we’ve seen again and again.
That’s not magic. That’s structure.
Why We Use the Lines
I’ve written before about how trading without trendlines is like driving in a snowstorm without lane markings.
It’s not that you’re a bad driver — it’s that you’re blind.
But once you draw the right lines on the chart — the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs — everything snaps into focus.
You stop guessing. You stop overreacting. And you start seeing the market for what it actually is.
Right now?
The market is trapped between the 50-day and the 200-day.
Not crashing. Not breaking out. Just bouncing in a box.
And that’s exactly what we’ve been preparing for.
Why I Don’t Try to Predict — I Play the Odds
The truth is no one knows what the market’s going to do next.
Not me. Not Powell. Not the guy on CNBC.
But when you’ve got decades of experience and a clean read on the trendlines?
You don’t have to guess.
You just play the odds.
When the market is stuck like this — and I mean stuck between two major EMAs — the highest-probability outcome is sideways chop.
And that’s what we’ve been getting.
And that’s your edge — the thing that lets you make money from the market.
If you’ve never traded this way, I know it can be scary. How can I trust my trades to an “invisible” trendline?
Well, Monday I’ll show you — if you haven’t already started trading this way — the subtle mindset shift that needs to happen before this approach feels second nature.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. In the meantime, here’s a high probability way that Geof Smith has been playing the world’s biggest asset.
