I’ve been doing a lot of trade breakdowns for you lately, so I thought I’d do something different for you today.
Instead of doing a deep dive on a single trade…
I’m showing you the power of my calendar strategy by doing a speed run through my last 10 trades.
Read on to see how this strategy has performed across our last 10 trades.
Overview
The calendar strategy I use is based on more than 10 years of backtested data.
My team actually did this research and discovered a group of stocks that rises on the same dates every year.
So for example: Every year, for at least the past 10 years, MSFT has risen on October 13. Simple as that.
Some people call it seasonality. I call an incredibly valuable database of stocks, because it works almost like magic.
It’s hard to believe, but even if a stock is doing poorly, once it hits its special date, it’s like a magnet starts pulling it up over the next several days.
It’s pretty rare that it actually fails.
Here are a couple of other tickers you can keep an eye on for the coming year:
- AAPL – June 30
- GOOG – July 6
- FDX – January 2 ← Keep an eye on this one coming up soon
Now that you understand the foundation of the strategy, let’s do our speed run through the last 10 trades.
By the way, I’m not going to bore you with the details on how exactly I trade these.
I explained that earlier this week, so you can check out this post if you want a refresher how exactly I trade these.
Just remember this:
When I trade these stocks, the special kind of trade I use allows me to win in most situations.
So if the stock goes up — we win… If the stock goes sideways — we win… And even if the stock goes down a little bit — we win.
Ok, here we go: I’ll work through the trades backwards through time, so the most recent one is first. (it’s still currently active as I type this)
December 20th – ADSK (still open)
Just 2 days ago, I opened a trade on ADSK. The stock was trading at around $240 at the time.
My calendar told me it had risen for the past 10 years over this time period, so we opened a trade betting against the stock dropping to $227.50 by December 29th.
And while the trade is still active, you can see the price is far above that level — and still floating away from our $227.50 level.
Only time will tell how this one works out, but with just 4 trading days left (markets are closed Monday for Christmas), I’m feeling pretty confident.
December 13 – MCK (mixed)
This is an interesting one, because it’s a great teaching tool.
Plus, it shows you that I’m not just showing you my winners.
Depending on your exit plan for this one, it could have closed as a winner, a breakeven, or a loser.
We entered the MCK trade on December 13th. My calendar told me that MCK had risen on that date for the past 10 years or more.
So as MCK was trading around $467.50, we placed a trade betting that it would stay above $452.50 by December 22nd.
Unfortunately, this year, MCK had other plans. Almost immediately after we entered the trade, it dropped dramatically and zipped past the level we had placed our trade at. (remember, that’s $452.50)
I tell all my students to pick their exit plan before they even enter a trade. Because the only time you should be making trading decisions is when you’re NOT under the gun.
The worst possible time to be making decisions is when a stock has turned against you.
So before you even place the trade, you should have your exit plan in place. And then if the trade turns against you, you just execute on your plan. It’s the only way to trade.
In any case, MCK turned against us almost immediately after we placed our trade.
But here’s the great thing about the way I trade this strategy.
In the best case scenario, if you had bought back the $452.50 put that we sold (at a slight loss) and then held onto the $450 put that we bought…
You would have seen that $450 put soar in value, offsetting the small loss on the $452.50 and even netting you a sizeable profit.
Other, less desirable exit scenarios could have seen you close the trade at a breakeven or even a modest loss.
And if you had held on without doing anything until expiration…
You would have seen the stock price trade back up through the $452.50 level and the trade would have expired with you keeping the full premium you collected. A bit of a wild ride — but proof that the strategy works.
Again, this isn’t an ideal trade, but luckily it is rare for this to happen — and it serves as a good lesson in trade management and choosing your exit plan.
November 29 – RH (win)
On November 29th, as RH was trading around $272, we entered a trade betting that it would stay above $235 by December 8th.
As you can see on the chart, for more than 7 calendar days, it stayed well above that level.
But then earnings news came in on expiration day and sent the stock crashing. By my count, it dropped over 14%.
Here’s the important lesson: Even with that huge crash, it was still $5 above the level we bet against.
By the end of the trading day, it closed at $245 and we kept the full premium we collected — another winner.
November 15 – AAPL (win)
On November 15th, we entered a trade on AAPL, knowing that based on our calendar it would be rising over the next few days.
So with the stock trading at around $189, I placed a bet against the price falling below $185 by November 24th.
As you can see on the chart below, AAPL stair-stepped its way up over the next few days, before coming back down almost to our entry point on the last day.
This is a great lesson in why we don’t just buy the stock. We place this special kind of trade that lets us profit across a range of 3 different scenarios:
- If the stock goes up
- If the stock goes sideways
- If the stock goes down slightly
We might “know” that the stock is supposed to go up over the next few days…
But even if that fails us and it just moves sideways — as with this AAPL trade — we still win.
November 9 – USO (win)
By now you’re probably thinking that we only ever do bullish plays with this strategy.
But that’s not true. Sometimes when my calendar shows me that a stock has a 10+ year track record of going down on a certain date, I’ll trade it.
This was the case with USO on November 9th. My calendar told me it would be going down.
So with the stock trading at around $70, my trade bet that it would stay below $74 by November 17th.
This one faked us out a little bit. It actually rose over the next few days, before gently kissing the $74 level and then falling dramatically.
Depending on how you played this one, it could have been a breakeven for you.
But I’m chalking it up as a win because it didn’t actually touch $74 and it was only up at that level for a very brief time.
November 1 – GOOG (loss)
This one defied our pattern. GOOG was supposed to go down on November 1st.
So with the stock at around $126, my trade bet that it would stay below $132 by November 10th.
Unfortunately, Google took off like a rocket and just kept going higher and higher.
Four days into our trade, it had passed through the $132 level and kept on rising.
Again, I’ll reiterate the importance of having decided your exit plan before getting into the trade.
Most folks probably would have exited the trade as GOOG was approaching $132. That would have let you get out with close to a breakeven or possibly a slight loss.
While I have a success rate north of 90% with these trades , I want you to know that not everything is a winner.
October 17 – HD (win)
This is about as close to a picture perfect trade as you can get.
On October 17th, my calendar told me that HD would be dropping like a rock.
So with the stock trading at around $295, I placed a trade that bet against the stock rising to $307.50 by October 27th.
And right from the outset this one cooperated with us.
As you can see from the chart below, it just dropped like a rock from the moment we placed the trade all the way through expiration day.
Easy win for the 10 calendar days we spent in this trade.
October 10 – FDX (win)
Another picture perfect example.
On October 10th, my calendar told me that FDX had a decade’s worth of history showing it would go down.
So with the stock hovering around $259, I placed a trade betting against the stock rising to $265 by October 20th.
Right from the outset, FDX dropped like rock — and continued going lower all the way through expiration day.
We cleared another easy win for just 10 calendar days in the market.
October 4 – NOC (loss)
Here’s an interesting, once-in-a-blue-moon example. NOC is the ticker symbol for Northrop Grumman, a defense contractor.
On October 4th, NOC was trading around $420 and my calendar told me it was due to head south, based on a decade’s worth data.
Knowing this, we placed a trade against the stock rising to $442.50. For the first two days, the NOC cooperated.
Then the terrible attacks in Israel took place and the very next trading day, all defense contracts gapped up significantly, disturbing the pattern we had based this trade on.
We took a loss, but because of the way we trade this, the call we sold was “backed up” by the call we bought, so our losses are firmly limited.
September 27 – RH (win)
Another picture-perfect trade.
We entered this trade on RH on September 27th with the knowledge that the stock had slumped every year on this date for the past 10 years.
So we entered the trade, betting that RH wouldn’t hit $277.50 before October 6th.
Soon after we placed the trade, it started rising.
But within 48 hours that buying action was exhausted and the stock sank down without ever getting close to our $277.50 level.
This one closed a winner just 9 calendar days later.
Wrapping It All Up
So there you have it — a whirlwind tour through my last 10 trades using the calendar strategy.
Sure, we hit a few bumps with GOOG and NOC, but hey, that’s the spice of trading. It’s not about winning every race; it’s about running the right ones.
What’s the takeaway from this speed run? It’s that knowledge is power, especially when it comes to trading.
By leveraging historical data, we’re not just throwing darts in the dark — we’re turning the odds in our favor. And in the world of trading, that’s as close to a superpower as you can get.
Remember, the key to this strategy is flexibility and a cool head. Whether the market zigs or zags, as long as you have a plan and stick to it, you’ll come out on top more often than not.
So, keep an eye on those dates, stay nimble, and let the calendar guide your way. Here’s to making more smart trades and watching those gains stack up.
After all, in the trading game, every day is a new opportunity to scoop up new opportunities — one calculated move at a time.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. If you want to go deeper on this calendar strategy, click here and watch the video I recorded for you. In it, I go through a bunch more examples of stocks that rise on certain dates. Enjoy!
