Hey Traders,
Over the past six weeks, I’ve been warning about this market. Not because I’m psychic — but because I’ve seen this movie before.
We had that nasty selloff down to the March lows… a half-hearted bounce… and a crowd of traders out there treating every green candle like the bottom was in.
I told you then — and I’ll tell you again now:
This market isn’t back yet. It’s just bouncing off the ropes before the next punch lands.
All That Hope… For Nothing
For the past two days, SPY clawed its way back up to the 20-day EMA — the green trendline on my chart that shows short-term momentum.
If we were in a healthy market? That line would be under the price, acting like a springboard.
But right now?
It’s above the price. And like I said the other day, that’s like a ball hitting a ceiling.
It’s got nowhere to go but down.
So what happened next?
SPY tapped it. Twice.
And today? It got smacked right back down — opening with a gap lower and barely catching a breath since.
This Is Why I Stay Bearish
That 20-day wasn’t just some arbitrary number.
It was the first layer of resistance in a full stack of bearish trendlines.
We’ve got the green line (short-term) under the blue line (mid-term) under the red line (long-term). That’s what I call a “bearish stack alignment.”
And when you see that?
It ain’t time to buy dips. It’s time to trade smart — and that means trading with the trend.
The Chart Doesn’t Lie
Here’s what I mean:
- SPY rejected the 20-day EMA
- Momentum is still pointing lower
- Volatility’s been spiking
- The broader trendlines are acting like ceilings… and they’re dropping
So while the hope crowd was crossing their fingers, toes, and probably their eyes hoping this week’s bounce would hold?
I was sitting in bearish trades with time, cushion, and probability stacked on my side.
Because hope might be good for your soul — but it ain’t a trading strategy.
What I’m Watching Now
Let me give you a tip:
If you want to stop guessing which way the market’s going, do this:
✅ Pull up a 6-month chart of SPY
✅ Add the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs
✅ Check the stack
If green’s on top of blue, and blue’s on top of red? You’re in bull country.
But if it’s flipped — like it is now?
That’s a bear market.
Plain and simple.
Final Thoughts: Watch What Happens Next
So what now?
I’m not chasing bounces. I’m watching for breakdowns.
Because if today’s rejection at the 20-day turns into a rollover — and we lose last week’s low?
It could get nasty in a hurry.
But I’m not panicked. I’m not guessing. And I’m damn sure not crossing my fingers.
I’m trading with the trend. Selling premium. And stacking high-probability setups like I always do.
That ceiling overhead?
It’s still there. And it’s still coming down.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. Volume is surging on one stock following Trump’s trade deal. Click here to get the details!
