Hey traders,
Quick market update and how I’m handling it.
Lately, the tone’s shifted. The market isn’t as strong as it was a few sessions ago. We tagged support at my short-term 20 day trend point, slipped through it, and found firmer footing closer to the intermediate-term 50 day trend point — that’s a sign of momentum cooling, not crashing.
What I’m Seeing on the Indexes
- SPY: The S&P 500 ETF is flirting with that short-term level. A close below it would set the stage for more volatility and possibly more downside — especially if price then breaks the intermediate-term level.
- DIA: The Dow ETF has already closed below the short-term trend point — not the signal I want to see in a strong tape.
- QQQ: Nasdaq 100 ETF is still above the short-term trend point, but struggling. It’s done this before and pushed higher… but it’s been stretched for a while, so I’m staying cautious.
In plain English, the short-term 20 day trend point is the the faster trend line I use to judge immediate momentum.
The intermediate-term 50 day trend point is a slower line that often acts like a second layer of support.
My Stance: Tighten Risk, Don’t Panic
I’m not calling a top. I’m simply tightening the plan.
- I’m running a 7% stop on positions — that’s the line in the sand where I’m out if price moves against me.
- I’ve added some shorts to balance things out and put the same 7% stop on those as well.
- Otherwise, I’m letting current trades work — no need to over-massage good positions just because the market had a couple soft days.
Stops are just pre-planned exits. They keep a normal pullback from turning into portfolio damage.
What Could Change My Mind Fast
A strong close back above the short-term trend point (with follow-through) tells me buyers are still in charge.
A firm break down below the intermediate-term level tells me to get even more defensive and shrink position size until we stabilize.
By the way, that’s the whole point of reading the trend points — they’re your on-chart “if/then” markers.
Bottom Line
The market’s softer. Play stops tight, respect your risk, and let solid trades breathe. That’s exactly what I’m doing.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. Have you seen Jeffry’s CashBot? He’s leveraging one of the market’s most intricate patterns. The opportunities here are unbelievable!
