Hey Traders,
Let me show you one of the most dangerous things you can run into…
A bullish move in a bearish market.
It doesn’t happen every day — but when it does? It catches people off guard, chops them up, and spits them out.
And guess what? We’ve seen it several times in this market crash over the past 6 or so weeks.
Let me explain.
A Dangerous Inversion
Under normal conditions, short-term momentum sits on top of medium-term, which sits on top of long-term.
But we haven’t been in normal conditions for a while.
Back in early March, the short-term trendline (green) crossed under the medium-term (blue). That was a warning sign.
Then just last week? The medium crossed under the long-term (red). Now the stack is fully inverted.
That’s a classic bear-market formation.
But here’s the tricky part…
Don’t Get Fooled by the Bounce
After 3–5 days of movement in one direction, the market usually takes a breather.
And sure enough, today markets seemed to open with a bullish pop which has since faded.
But don’t let that fool you — this isn’t a recovery. It’s a countertrend rally in a down market. And those can be deadly.
It’s like walking into a buzzsaw.
Because above us? There’s a hard ceiling around 550.
And it’s not just any resistance. That’s a triple layer of trendlines bearing down on price… and it’s moving lower day by day.
Plus, see that gap between about 525 and 535? That’s gonna act like a wall. That’s future resistance that the market’s going to need to work through.
In short?
Bounces like this are traps.
What I’m Doing Instead
While everyone else is getting chopped up?
I’m doing what works.
I’m selling premium when it’s pumped up by fear. I’m trading with the trend, not against it.
Because this kind of volatility? It’s a gift to traders who know how to manage risk.
You don’t need the market to fly higher.
You just need to stay on the right side of momentum — and use the bounce to enter smart trades on your terms.
Like I always say…
Sell into strength — not into weakness. (Tape that to your monitor. I mean it.)
Final Thoughts: Don’t Jump the Gun
I’m bullish on America long-term.
But right now — for the time being — the market is saying something different.
Until SPY can climb back above all three trendlines — and do it with conviction — I’m not pretending we’re in a bull market.
These little bounces might look good at first glance.
But I’ve seen too many of these fakeouts.
Be careful when the crowds are celebrating a green candle day in the middle of a bearish trend.
I’m keeping my head down, following the trend, and setting up trades that’ll pay out when the next drop comes.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
P.S. The volatility in Tesla is GREAT for a special kind of trade I’m doing.
