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You can be right for weeks — even months — and still have no idea why.
That’s where I was back in 1999 after I put $25,000 into a public trading challenge at Schwab. I shared every trade with the public, and by the end of the year, I was up nicely.
But here’s the thing — I didn’t trust it.
Was it skill? Luck? Was I doing something repeatable, or was I just riding a hot streak that would eventually burn me?
So I did something most traders never do: I spread out all the trade confirmations Schwab mailed me.
Hundreds and hundreds of trades all over my floor.
I matched them up and asked myself what my better trades had in common.
That’s when the pattern hit me — I was buying high and selling higher, not buying dips, not catching falling knives, not waiting for pullbacks.
That was the moment the noise fell away and the signal started getting loud.
The Pattern I Didn’t Expect
I was buying high and selling higher — within the context of stocks already in an uptrend.
Specifically, stocks that had hit a 52-week high, were over $25 a share, traded at least 1 million shares a day, and could move from $2 to $10 in two to 10 days.
This was the opposite of everything I’d been taught.
At the brokerage company, Dean Witter Reynolds, we learned to pick bottoms and call clients with “cheap” winners.
I couldn’t do it.
It was harder to pick bottoms than to buy a high and sell higher. And once I started doing that? Way more profitable.
What the Data Told Me to Cut
After analyzing all the trades, I took everything to a certified public accountant (CPA) and got a compilation report. I tore it apart from the inside: What was working? What wasn’t?
Stocks under $20 weren’t working — so I cut them.
And that analysis became the foundation for everything I do now.
I developed Trendpoint Software based on the EMA (exponential moving average) system you see every week — all because I questioned my results and dug into the “why.”
Most traders never do this.
They hit a winning streak and assume they’ve figured it out. Or they lose and blame the market or the system.
But if you don’t know why you’re good, you won’t know when you’re about to go bad.
I spent 1999 proving I could make money. Then I spent the time after proving I understood how.
That’s the difference between a hot streak and a system.
Trade well,
Jack Carter
Jack Carter Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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